Madison Keys vs Varvara Gracheva Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Keys has recently achieved a higher second serve success rate of 42.77%, compared to Gracheva's 40.12%. Could this give Keys an advantage in maintaining service games?
• Despite Keys' second serve strength, Gracheva has captured more second serve return points at 51.2% compared to Keys' 48.02%. Is Gracheva's return game a potential edge in this match?
• As for first serve return points, Gracheva once again leads with 33.41% over Keys' 31.51%, indicating a solid return performance.
• Under pressure, Keys surpasses Gracheva in saving breakpoints, with rates of 50.57% and 48.68% respectively. Does this suggest Keys' potential strength in critical moments?
• In terms of matches won over the past year, Keys has a stronger record, winning 75.47%, while Gracheva only won 48.08%, which could reflect current form differences.
• Keys performs best on Grass with a 72% win rate and struggles on Indoor hard courts at 53%. Meanwhile, Gracheva excels on Clay with 65% and has her lowest success on Grass with 36%.
• Keys has competed predominantly in Masters series tournaments, boasting a win rate of 65%, compared to Gracheva's 35.29% in main tour events, suggesting Keys' experience at higher competition levels.
• Opposing player quality shows Keys has faced tougher competition, with an average opponent rank of 40.04 against Gracheva's 126.77.
• If the match proceeds to a deciding set, Keys holds a significant advantage, having won 79% of such sets, whereas Gracheva has managed only 38%.
• On break point conversion, Gracheva has a slight edge with a conversion rate of 39.29%, narrowly surpassing Keys' 37.87%.

Editorial Prediction (May 8, 2025, UTC):

The head-to-head statistics favor Keys in several key areas. Her superior second serve performance and ability to play under pressure give her an edge over Gracheva. Furthermore, Keys' higher win percentage in recent matches and her experience against tougher opponents further bolster her position as the likely favorite.

Gracheva’s stronger return game could allow her to seize opportunities, but Keys' impressive form in deciding sets means she is more likely to prevail in tight match situations.

With the combination of her form on favored surfaces and experience at higher competition levels, Keys is predicted to emerge victorious in the upcoming match.